Using “competitive’ loosely.
Colorado’s 2022 Competitive Outlook
Colorado’s newly drawn political districts ensure Democrat dominance in the 2022 Congressional, State Senate, and State House races.
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New Maps Paint Colorado Blue
The third round of staff maps produced by the Colorado redistricting and reapportionment committees would result in permanent Republican minorities in all legislative bodies. But just how big a disadvantage will we be at?
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And that’s why you should only get them here.
Yes, Stats and Math DO Matter
An anonymous post claims statistical proof of election fraud in Colorado. All they prove is their own ignorance.
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But that doesn’t mean it’s without value
CPR attempts election analysis. …it goes poorly.
Colorado Public Radio’s laudable attempt to substantiate a false claim in their story opens the door for a primer on common electoral analysis mistakes. Such as not using data from the district in question, using levels instead of rates for comparison, cherry-picking data to fit a pre-set narrative, confusing candidate and district performance, failing to account for differences in district geography, and ignoring Occam’s Razor.
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Direct mail is effective… kinda…
Does Direct Mail Work?
In 2012, the Colorado Republican Party conducted a study on the effectiveness of political direct mail that was published in Political Research Quarterly and finally answered the question — is all this mail doing anything?
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What has COVID cost campaigns?
COVID-19’s Impact on Campaign Fundraising
We all knew fundraising was going to take a hit from COVID-19. But how much of a hit did we take? We break down the precise hit to campaign income from the pandemic.
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Beware these stats and those using them
Slippery Stats
We all know that data is very en vogue these days, and not just in political circles. Predictably, this has led to a proliferation of squishy math, soft stats, and outright errors. So let’s go through some of the most common political math fallacies so that you too can ridicule others for making these mistakes. Because we all know public ridicule is the most effective form of instruction.
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When CO caucus attendance collapsed, one county weathered the storm
Case Study: Digital Advertising for Event Attendance
Using precisely targeted digital advertising the Gunnison County GOP was able to double caucus registration. Gunnison county ultimately had the fifth-highest caucus turnout of any county in Colorado. Their caucus turnout rate was more than twice the statewide average. All this while Colorado as a whole saw an 80% drop in caucus attendance.
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How CO Republicans Lose Before They Ever Start
The SD20 Fallacy
Every cycle legislative leadership spends well into the seven figures on our effort to capture or defend competitive legislative races. But our inability to understand which races are actually competitive has resulted in hundreds of thousands of dollars of waste each cycle and mounting losses over the decade.
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Obamacare sets up a decade of healthcare reporting
Colorado’s Top Stories of 2019
If there’s one thing I hate, it’s baseless political opinions. So when The Colorado Sun posited the question of the most important story of the year and decade, I analyzed their own data to find the answer.
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Republicans win on the issues, but can’t elect candidates
Prop CC Results & After Action
The defeat of Prop CC marked another win in the recent run of success that Republicans have had with ballot issues. A further illustration of Republicans’ ability to win on the issues despite the fact that we can’t seem to get any of our candidates elected. I tend not to be very interested in ballot issues, however, our recent success has prompted me to take a look at the “No on CC” effort to see if we’re actually doing something dramatically different from the candidate side.
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Who knew the news could be turned into so many graphs?
Pulsar Communications Dashboard – How to Interpret
This daily update has historically been reserved for campaigns that we are actively managing. However, now that we are opening up access to a wider audience I thought a short primer might be helpful.
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What’s life without competition?
Colorado’s Legislative Candidate Leaderboard
Ranking Colorado’s best (and worst) Republican legislative candidates. Where every candidate this decade ranks across three objective measures of success.
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Is cash the cure-all?
Colorado’s 2018 Election Spending
Colorado Republicans faced an onslaught of Democrat cash in the 2018 election. But would having more money have saved us? Or are we just spending it wrong?
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Turns out CA is to blame
Colorado Migration
Just how bad for Republicans has migration from California to Colorado been? We examine the impact of people moving into the state on partisan registration.
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What’d it cost us?
Same Day Voter Registration
Did same day voter registration impact the 2018 election results? We examined new voter registrations during the final month of the election to find out.
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If you’re feeling strategic
Colorado Legislative Recall Petition Requirements
Overview of the number of recall petition signatures required in each Colorado legislative district.
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All-Stars of the GOP
Colorado Republican’s Best Candidates
Ranking Colorado’s best (and worst) Republican candidates shows that it’s still possible for Republicans to win. But only if we study the right campaigns.
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Is it even possible for candidates to distance themselves from Trump?
Colorado’s Split Ticket
Colorado voters are traditionally free-thinking, moderate and prone to split tickets. Are they now following the national trend of increasing polarization? The evidence shows they are. But, it doesn’t mean candidates can’t break through.
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But Democrats Are Registering Red
Party Switchers Leave the Major Parties
Female Democrat voters are leaving their party and registering as Republican. But, both parties have also seen their supporters leave to become Unaffiliated.
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A Deep Dive Analysis of Who Voted in 2018
2018 Colorado Voter Turnout
A deep analysis of Colorado voter turnout in the 2018 midterm and what it means for Colorado’s political future as the state continues to drift to the left.
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Not like they should, anyway
No, young people don’t vote
Young voters still don’t turnout like they should. Contrary to claims recently covered by The Sun, voters under 46 are still underrepresented.
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Did Trump Voters Stay Home in 2018?
Turnout & The Trump Effect
There’s a claim circulating that Trump voters stayed home in 2018. We investigate the validity of this claim.
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Correcting a Westword analysis paints an even grimmer picture for Republicans.
Different Story, Same Ending
The latest round of post-election analysis included some sobering statistics for Colorado Republicans. But, it also included two of my biggest pet peeves and I just cannot stand to leave them unaddressed any longer so, before my usual ominous warning, we’re going to start with some points on psephology.
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For those desperate to blame someone
The Mathematics of Blame
In the wake of the disastrous defeat that Colorado Republicans suffered this year people are in a frenzy to lay the blame on someone. But, where should that blame actually fall?
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