The Colorado Political District Explorer puts registration trends and competitiveness at your fingertips. This new interactive web application provides historic registration trends, current demographics, and future competitiveness. Information is available for every County, Congressional, State Senate, and State House District in Colorado.
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Colorado’s newly drawn political districts ensure Democrat dominance in the 2022 Congressional, State Senate, and State House races.
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New Maps Paint Colorado Blue
The third round of staff maps produced by the Colorado redistricting and reapportionment committees would result in permanent Republican minorities in all legislative bodies. But just how big a disadvantage will we be at?
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How Republicans Will Lose 2020 Reapportionment
If Republicans, and all Coloradans for that matter, want to ensure truly competitive districts for the next decade we need to consider the next decade. Not just the next election, and certainly not elections that happened two, four, or six years ago. We need to acknowledge the fact that districts change over time, and draw maps that reflect that fact.
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The April Colorado voter registration numbers had Republican registration down by -1,004 on the month. The Republican-Democrat registration gap widened by 635 to now leave Republicans at a 125,781 registration disadvantage to Democrats.
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Dr. Douglas Frank claims he’s uncovered statistical proof of voter fraud. But every one of the underlying data points he presents is wrong.
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An anonymous post claims statistical proof of election fraud in Colorado. All they prove is their own ignorance.
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Colorado Public Radio’s laudable attempt to substantiate a false claim in their story opens the door for a primer on common electoral analysis mistakes. Such as not using data from the district in question, using levels instead of rates for comparison, cherry-picking data to fit a pre-set narrative, confusing candidate and district performance, failing to account for differences in district geography, and ignoring Occam’s Razor.
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In 2012, the Colorado Republican Party conducted a study on the effectiveness of political direct mail that was published in Political Research Quarterly and finally answered the question — is all this mail doing anything?
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We all knew fundraising was going to take a hit from COVID-19. But how much of a hit did we take? We break down the precise hit to campaign income from the pandemic.
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We all know that data is very en vogue these days, and not just in political circles. Predictably, this has led to a proliferation of squishy math, soft stats, and outright errors. So let’s go through some of the most common political math fallacies so that you too can ridicule others for making these mistakes. Because we all know public ridicule is the most effective form of instruction.
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Using precisely targeted digital advertising the Gunnison County GOP was able to double caucus registration. Gunnison county ultimately had the fifth-highest caucus turnout of any county in Colorado. Their caucus turnout rate was more than twice the statewide average. All this while Colorado as a whole saw an 80% drop in caucus attendance.
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Every cycle legislative leadership spends well into the seven figures on our effort to capture or defend competitive legislative races. But our inability to understand which races are actually competitive has resulted in hundreds of thousands of dollars of waste each cycle and mounting losses over the decade.
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As the saying goes — “You’re worth what you’re paid.” So I turned to Colorado’s campaign finance data to find out who Colorado politicos trust/need/rely on the most.
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If there’s one thing I hate, it’s baseless political opinions. So when The Colorado Sun posited the question of the most important story of the year and decade, I analyzed their own data to find the answer.
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The defeat of Prop CC marked another win in the recent run of success that Republicans have had with ballot issues. A further illustration of Republicans’ ability to win on the issues despite the fact that we can’t seem to get any of our candidates elected. I tend not to be very interested in ballot issues, however, our recent success has prompted me to take a look at the “No on CC” effort to see if we’re actually doing something dramatically different from the candidate side.
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This daily update has historically been reserved for campaigns that we are actively managing. However, now that we are opening up access to a wider audience I thought a short primer might be helpful.
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Ranking Colorado’s best (and worst) Republican legislative candidates. Where every candidate this decade ranks across three objective measures of success.
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Colorado Republicans faced an onslaught of Democrat cash in the 2018 election. But would having more money have saved us? Or are we just spending it wrong?
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Just how bad for Republicans has migration from California to Colorado been? We examine the impact of people moving into the state on partisan registration.
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Did same day voter registration impact the 2018 election results? We examined new voter registrations during the final month of the election to find out.
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Overview of the number of recall petition signatures required in each Colorado legislative district.
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Ranking Colorado’s best (and worst) Republican candidates shows that it’s still possible for Republicans to win. But only if we study the right campaigns.
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Colorado voters are traditionally free-thinking, moderate and prone to split tickets. Are they now following the national trend of increasing polarization? The evidence shows they are. But, it doesn’t mean candidates can’t break through.
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Female Democrat voters are leaving their party and registering as Republican. But, both parties have also seen their supporters leave to become Unaffiliated.
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A deep analysis of Colorado voter turnout in the 2018 midterm and what it means for Colorado’s political future as the state continues to drift to the left.
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Young voters still don’t turnout like they should. Contrary to claims recently covered by The Sun, voters under 46 are still underrepresented.
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There’s a claim circulating that Trump voters stayed home in 2018. We investigate the validity of this claim.
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The latest round of post-election analysis included some sobering statistics for Colorado Republicans. But, it also included two of my biggest pet peeves and I just cannot stand to leave them unaddressed any longer so, before my usual ominous warning, we’re going to start with some points on psephology.
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In the wake of the disastrous defeat that Colorado Republicans suffered this year people are in a frenzy to lay the blame on someone. But, where should that blame actually fall?
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After every election, regardless of the outcome, the chatter turns to what a terrible job the Colorado Republican Party did and how they’re to blame for every shortcoming that befell our party.
This makes sense, of course. Because, the next election is right around the corner — the race for State Party Chair.
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